Wall Street Starts Timing the Bitcoin Bottom

Cantor Fitzgerald told clients this week that the bitcoin bear market is in its final stage. In past cycles the absolute bottom arrived about 384 days after the peak; count from October 2025’s $126,000 high and the floor lands around October 2026. The desk’s advice: treat $61,000 as a candidate bottom, and wait for autumn to confirm it.

The on-chain data agrees on the geometry. K33 notes that more than half of all bitcoin supply is now held at a loss — a level that has historically appeared near the end of bear markets, though often with one last flush below before the turn.

The betting money is stingier

On Kalshi, traders price roughly a one-in-five chance that bitcoin sees $100,000 again before January 2027, and a 57% chance it touches $50,000 first, with more than $10 million wagered across the timing contracts. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 this year did hit a three-week high this week — a rebound from almost nothing.

Bottom-calling is a crowded trade. Bottom-buying is not.

The war backdrop

None of this happened in a vacuum. The US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes Wednesday; the dollar hit a week high, oil rose on Strait of Hormuz risk, and bitcoin slipped about 1% to trade near $62,000 — behaving, once again, like a risk asset rather than a haven. Spot ETFs took in a modest $21 million Tuesday, a third straight day of inflows after June’s record bleed.

Bitcoin just printed its first losing quarter since late 2023. The chartists’ line in the sand sits at $60,000; the bulls’ at $65,000.

Editor’s note: Kalshi odds move continuously; figures are as captured July 8. Cantor’s 384-day figure is its own cycle average, not a law of nature. Nothing here is a forecast of ours — we report theirs.